The myth of Florida’s close losses

When you watch a basketball game, or practically anything you intend to analyze for deeper understanding, there’s sometimes a tendency to focus on specific moments.  A missed 3-pointer from the wing.  An offensive rebound that leads to a three-point play.  A questionable offensive foul.  In an effort to understand, you cut up minutes into seconds, looking for a play that shifted momentum.  The play that sealed the outcome.

Watching a game in which you prefer a certain outcome can exacerbate this, particularly if your team loses.  When that happens in a close game, you may come to two conclusions:

1. The later the possession, the more significant to the outcome of the game.

2. Something “happened” to your team to swing this game, independent of its performance.

The three scenarios in the first paragraph all affected the outcome of the Florida Gator’s result in Knoxville on Tuesday, but the final one is what many Gator fans remember.  Scottie Wilbekin forced a turnover, flipped the ball to Mike Rosario and initiated what could have been a three-point play.  The referee wiped a guaranteed two and potential three points off the scoreboard.  Instead of facing a two point deficit with 30 seconds left, the Gators stayed five points behind.

There were other possessions for Florida.  Over 60 of them.  But because of the performance history of this team they didn’t matter.  An inability to execute offensively late in games has cost the Gators two of their past three games.  The questionable call is what produced the outcome.

At least that’s what a Florida apologist (for lack of a better term) may say.  Someone else could say that Kenny Boynton’s missed three and Jarnell Stokes three-point play in the final 90 seconds gave the Vols a 64-58 win.  And that person would be about twice as right.

All three amounted to 20 seconds and three possessions in a 40-minute, 130-possession game.  In other words, it wasn’t a missed three, a flubbed rebound or a bad call that produced the outcome.  It was 13 missed threes.  It was six less offensive rebounds, 11 less total rebounds and all 27 points from the unstoppable Jordan McRae.  Everything that happened in those 40 minutes affected the outcome of the game.  It sounds obvious, but sometimes that gets lost.  Especially on the Gators, who have botched offensive opportunities to win in the last 90 seconds of three losses this season.  In each of those games the Gators were outrebounded and scored no more than 64 points.

The Gators didn’t lose to Tennessee in 90 seconds.  They lost in 40 minutes.  Just listen to Billy Donovan’s postgame comments.

Leave a comment