The 2013 NBA Trade Deadline passed over 24 hours ago. We’re a month and a half removed from the BCS National Championship Game, weeks past the Super Bowl and over a month remains before Opening day and Amen Corner. The time to turn to college basketball is now… or maybe in March, you know, whatever.
What will you find when you get there? Plenty of familiar teams (though far fewer familiar players) fighting for the men’s top seeds: Indiana, Duke, Michigan State, Gonzaga. Three classic programs and the least mid-majorish mid-major ever. Comfort. Numbing familiarity.
But two teams in the men’s AP top five this week are from the state of Florida. I challenge anyone to figure out the last time that happened. The Miami Hurricanes (22-3) are the number two team in the country (with the corresponding number two RPI) and the Florida Gators (21-4) round out the top five (ranked fifth in RPI).
So is Florida the best college basketball state in the country?
There are a few Midwestern states that would scoff at that (see: Michigan, Indiana). Both Florida teams beat ranked competition from the Big Ten during their non-conference schedules, but lately both teams are vexing. Look at Miami first: The Hurricanes lead the Atlantic Coast Conference by a full three games over Duke despite averaging under 69 points per game (good for 140th in the country) and under 12 assists per game (261st nationally). They lost to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State (no, they don’t have a Bird on the team) in the non-conference. They have six seniors on their roster, including 24-year-old UF transfer Kenny Kadji. He is over four years older than Kyrie Irving, over five years older than Anthony Davis and the same age as Derrick Rose.
But the team’s leading scorer and sneaky NBA draft prospect is sophomore Shane Larkin. He averages 13 points and 4 assists per game and shoots 42 percent from behind the 3-point line. Larkin had 18 points in Miami’s 90-63 shellacking of top-ranked Duke a month ago. Without his offense, the team is in trouble. Larkin scored 18 points in his last two games combined; games in which the Hurricanes struggled against a bubble team (Virginia) and a team that could wind up with a losing record (Clemson). In its last two wins, Miami averaged under 50 points per game.
It’s not nearly as shocking that the Gators are in the top five. Florida has exited the NCAA tournament in the Elite Eight two years in a row, and in both games they led for long stretches. Leading scorer Kenny Boynton, the longest-tenured player in the Southeastern Conference, averages 13 points per game. Unlike Miami, three other players average double digits: Mike Rosario, Erik Murphy and Patric Young. Florida shoots over 49 percent from the field, the seventh-best percentage in men’s college basketball.
Things start to get weird when you look at Florida’s schedule. Every Gator victory this season has been by at least 14 points. They had double-digit leads in the second halves of two of their four losses. In both those games the Gators had opportunities to tie or win on a late possession, and in both games their normally clean on-ball screening looked sloppy. Florida missed wild 3-pointers both times.
Right now Miami struggles to find easy points and Florida struggles to close out games away from home (all four losses were on the road). So who has a better chance at a number one seed? The Gators win by default. Both conferences are disappointing, but Florida is the only ranked team in the SEC. Miami will likely have to face Duke two more times before the NCAA tournament: once in the regular season and once in the ACC tournament. Missouri looks like Florida’s only challenge since Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel tore his ACL.
Regardless, both teams look locked into top three seeding. You may not start watching until selection Sunday, anyway.
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